DCCC and NRCC Target 12 Races

Independent expenditures indicate the 12 seats that Republicans are targeting in the final three weeks.  Unfortunately, some Republican incumbents have been thrown overboard in the process, except Lincoln Diaz-Balart, where the NRCC has thrown in a half million this week (suitcase included).  The DCCC has yet to follow through in assisting Martinez, yet they should since it is apparent that Lincoln is in trouble.  

Here are the 12 races where the DCCC and NRCC are spending heavily (The Club for Growth is spending heavily for Walberg and Harris in MD-1):

AL (2nd) – Open Seat (R)

AL (5th) – Open Seat (D)

LA (5th) – Cazayoux (D)

MD (1st) – Open Seat (R)

MI (7th) – Walberg (R)

MO (6th) – Graves (R)

NJ (3rd) – Open Seat (R)

OH (1st) – Chabot (R)

OH (15th) – Open Seat (R)

PA (3rd) – English (R)

WA (8th) – Reichert (R)

WI (8th) – Kagen (D)

Now the good news.  Heavy spending by the DCCC and Defenders of Wildlife, in the case of Young and Musgrave, are certain to immediately bring down the eight incumbents listed below.  The NRCC has not spent on behalf of any of these incumbents, likely due to the closeness of previous elections in each district.  

In Feeney’s district Citizens Club for Growth is running an ad defining Kosmas as a liberal.  It simply carries no message, but is a worthwhile waste for the same organization that attacked Lynn Jenkins in Kansas and she still prevailed.  

Knollenberg has received spending by Natl. Assoc. of Realtors, but the Service Employees Internationl spending, on behalf of Peters, literally cancels all that out.  

The DCCC has not spent against Keller, yet the even split between the parties in the district and Keller’s poor primary performance ensure that independents, who he has not performed strongly with, are definately leaving his side this year.  

Therefore, my prediction is that the following will be defeated:

Young (AK) – The Club for Growth attacked Young viciously during the primary.  He limped across the finish line only to be greeted with a new barrage of attacks from Defenders of Wildlife and the DCCC.  Bruised, battered, and completely forgotten by the NRCC.

Musgrave (CO) – Defenders of Wildlife are spending heavily here, while also receiving an assist from Emily’s List and the DCCC.  The NRCC has come in at the last minute to help Musgrave, yet it is too little money to fix the barrage of attacks Musgrave sustained.

Feeney (FL) – Punishment has finally arrived for this arrogant and corrupt politician.  Not only did he interfere with the 2000 recount in Florida, he also drew his own district boundary while in the state legislature.  Any power which Feeney had, which was far less than what he had in Tallahassee, has finally been exhausted.

Keller (FL) – He came to office in 2001 with Bush and will now leave with Bush.  Neither the DCCC or NRCC has been spending here, but the demographics of the district have turned to the advantage of Democrats.  A poor performance in the primary clearly demonstrated Keller’s vulnerabilities.  Independents, the decisive voice here, will clearly break away from Keller.  The author of the “Cheeseburger Bill” has been fired.

Knollenberg (MI) – The economic devastation in Michigan and high unemployment are just some of the factors which guarantee Knollenberg’s loss.  While the NRCC and outside Republican groups continue to run ads on Walberg’s behalf the same can not be said true for Knollenberg.  Republicans have forfeited this seat in order to help the more ideological Walberg.

Hayes (NC) – Second round will bring Kissell across the finish line.  The DCCC is spending heavily on behalf of Kissell, largely due to his cash disadvantage.  The NRCC is not spending a single cent.  The district is Democratic leaning and has a 28% African-American electorate, the largest of any district currently represented by a Republican.

Porter (NV) – The high number of foreclosures in the Las Vegas market and the unpopularity of both Bush and Gov. Gibbons have finally taken their toll on Porter.  It was only a matter of time before both the district and NRCC abandoned him.  This is the year.

Kuhl (NY) – The cash strapped NRCC gave Kuhl, an extreme ideologue, a pass.  Desperate times call for desperate measures and Kuhl has been thrown overboard.

Even more good news.  The following eight open seats fall into the Democratic GAIN column:

AZ (1st) – Kirkpatrick defeats Hay

IL (11th) – Halvorson defeats Ozinga

MN (3rd) – Madia defeats Paulsen

NJ (7th) – Stender defeats Lance

NY (13th) – McMahon defeats Straniere

NY (25th) – Maffei defeats Sweetland

OH (16th) – Boccieri defeats Schuring

VA (11th) – Connolly defeats Fimian

The bad news is that Mahoney’s seat is gone.  Therefore, Democrats have a 15 seat gain so far.

Now, here are the top races (15 R and 6 D) that the DCCC has been targeting, yet Republicans and their shadow groups have not been able to respond in kind (except for Lincoln Diaz-Balart).  Too bad for the incumbents that have been thrown overboard to fight on their own.

AZ (3rd) – Shadegg (R)

CT (4th) – Shays (R)

FL (21st) – Diaz-Balart, Lincoln (R)

FL (25th) – Diaz-Balart, Mario (R)

GA (8th) – Marshall (D)

ID (1st) – Sali (R)

IL (10th) – Kirk (R)

IN (3rd) – Souder (R)

KS (2nd) – Boyda (D)

KY (2nd) – Open Seat (R)

MO (9th) – Open Seat (R)

NE (1st) – Terry (R)

NH (1st) – Shea-Porter (D)

NM (1st) – Open Seat (R)

NM (2nd) – Open Seat (R)

NY (26th) – Open Seat (R)

OH (2nd) – Schmidt (R)

PA (10th) – Carney (D)

PA (11th) – Kanjorski (D)

TX (22nd) – Lampson (D)

VA (2nd) – Drake (R)

Surprisingly, Democrat Marshall has been added for the same reason that the Chambliss race has become competitive in Georgia: the bailout package was not popular and Marshall voted for it.  This race should tighten.

Finally, there are 35 Republican seats which are at great risk.  Here they are:

AL (3rd) – Rogers (R)

CA (3rd) – Lungren (R)

CA (4th) – Open Seat (R)

CA (26th) – Dreier (R)

CA (46th) – Rohrbacher (R)

CA (50th) – Bilbray (R)

FL (10th) – Young (R)

FL (12th) – Putnam (R)

FL (15th) – Open Seat (R)

FL (18th) – Ros-Lehtinen (R)

IL (13th) – Biggert (R)

IN (4th) – Buyer (R)

IA (4th) – Latham (R)

IA (5th) – King (R)

LA (1st) – Scalise (R)

LA (7th) – Boustany (R)

MD (6th) – Bartlett (R)

MN (2nd) – Kline (R)

MN (6th) – Bachmann (R)

NV (2nd) – Heller (R)

NJ (5th) – Garrett (R)

NC (5th) – Foxx (R)

NC (10) – McHenry (R)

OH (14th) – LaTourette (R)

PA (6th) – Gerlach (R)

PA (15th) – Dent (R)

PA (18th) – Murphy (R)

SC (1st) – Brown (R)

SC (2nd) – Wilson (R)

TX (7th) – Culberson (R)

TX (10th) – McCaul (R)

VA (5th) – Goode (R)

VA (10th) – Wolf (R)

WV (2nd) – Capito (R)

WY (AL) – Open Seat (R)

While some races are moving away from Democrats (Bilbray and Ros-Lehtninen), others are moving closer to Democrats (Culberson, Bartlett, Bachmann, and Dent).

Here are just some of the highlights which could end up costing Republicans previously seen as safe:

Open Seat (15th) – Republican Posey got a great endorsement by Florida Today, the major newspaper in the district.  Florida Today stated that Posey’s support for social security privitization and stance against univeral health care were contrary to the needs of the district.  They also were fearful that Posey would be an extreme partisan in Congress.  Great endorsement!!  The Orlando Sentinel gave him no endorsement and the campaign whined, releasing press releases calling the Sentinel a “liberal” newspaper.  Interestingly, liberal enough to endorse an ulta-conservative Republican like Ricky Keller and other fellow Republicans.

Bartlett (MD) – He accussed overregulation in a debate for the current economic problems.  Obviously age has caught up with Bartlett and the race has shown signs of tightening since this reckless statement.

Brown (SC) – In a recent debate Brown stated that his opponent was not “a Southern woman.”  Clearly he was rude and cranky and Ketner has seized on the comment and is using it against Brown.  Guess no one told Brown that 55% of the district is registered female and 21% are registered African-American.  Guess Smoky the Bear doesn’t mind losing his seat to an heiress.